In 2016, Donald Trump made a historic run for the White House, managing to break through the so-called “blue wall” of traditionally Democratic states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This feat played a crucial role in securing his victory, and these states will once again be in focus as we gear up for the 2024 Presidential Election. However, Trump’s former adversary, Gov. Ron DeSantis, has voiced his concerns that Vice President Kamala Harris might replicate President Joe Biden’s success and win these states, potentially making Trump’s road back to the White House more challenging.
Why Are the “Blue Wall” States So Crucial?
Combined, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin account for 44 of the 270 electoral votes necessary to clinch the Presidency. As DeSantis pointed out in an interview with Ben Shapiro, while securing victories in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina is crucial, Trump also needs to win at least one of the “blue wall” states to ensure his victory. This concern arises from the fact that these states didn’t perform well for the Republicans in the Midterms, making the road to success in the Presidential Election more complicated.
Can Kamala Harris Win the “Blue Wall” States?
DeSantis has expressed doubts that Harris can secure victories in North Carolina and Georgia, labeling her as “the most liberal candidate that the Democratic Party has ever put up.” Despite demographic changes in these states, DeSantis believes that Harris won’t be able to win all three “blue wall” states, and that Trump only needs to secure one of them to win the election.
What Do the Polls Say?
According to RealClearPolitics, the competition in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania is tight. Harris leads by less than a point in the average Wisconsin and Michigan polls, while Trump leads by a similar margin in the Pennsylvania polls. These states appear to be as closely contested as they were in the last two elections when Trump was on the ballot. If Harris manages to sweep all three states, and her campaign doesn’t falter in any other state where victory is expected, she will secure the necessary 270 electoral votes.
In conclusion, the 2024 Presidential Election is shaping up to be a nail-biter. The “blue wall” states, with their significant number of electoral votes, will once again play a crucial role in deciding the next President. While both Trump and Harris have their strengths and weaknesses, the final outcome will largely depend on their ability to connect with the voters in these key states and convince them to come out and vote. With such tight competition, every single vote will count, making the run-up to the election an exciting time for political observers.
