Florida braces as AccuWeather revises its 2024 Atlantic hurricane forecast, predicting fewer storms due to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
The Sunshine State can breathe a sigh of relief as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season sees a downgraded forecast. In an update released on Tuesday, AccuWeather reduced the projected number of named storms and hurricanes. This change is attributed to a combination of unusual atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have impeded storm development in recent weeks.
Revised 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
According to the latest briefing, AccuWeather now anticipates between 16 and 20 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes, specifically those classified as Category 3 or higher. This is a significant decrease from the initial forecast, which had predicted a more active season. Furthermore, they suggest that 4 to 6 of these storms could directly impact the United States, specifically Florida.
So, what’s behind this change in prediction? Meteorologists point towards a combination of factors, including widespread dry air, increased wind shear, a significant presence of Saharan dust, and an unusual cold water pocket off the coast of Africa. These elements have collectively suppressed tropical activity across the Atlantic basin, leading to the first Labor Day weekend without a named storm in 27 years.
Impacts on Florida
Despite the revised forecast, Florida has already faced the brunt of major storm this season. Hurricane Debby left a trail of destruction, causing an estimated $28 billion in damage and economic loss across the United States. This estimate includes both direct and indirect damages, including property destruction, infrastructure losses, supply chain interruptions, and lost tourism and wage income.
Florida’s Gulf Coast, including major population centers like Fort Myers and Tampa, experienced severe flooding due to the storm surge. In Lee County, the surge reached 3.25 feet above the average high tide, leaving homes and businesses underwater.
Looking Ahead
Despite the revised forecast, Floridians should remain vigilant. The 2024 hurricane season is far from over, and as we’ve seen with Hurricane Debby, even one storm can leave a lasting impact. As always, it’s important to have a disaster plan in place and to stay informed about the latest weather updates.
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